The proposed scheme will fail to live up to the hype initially because the size of the opportunity needs to be put into perspective, says Shiv Taneja of Cerulli.
Mutual fund managers, facing asset retention issues, are increasingly turning to private bank and insurers for distribution, says Cerulli, but fierce competition will keep the shift gradual.
As Southeast Asians accumulate wealth, they will likely invest more in non-traditional assets, including real estate and insurance products. That looks set to deplete industry AUM.
The initial batch of four products listed in Hong Kong, which attracted $6.4 billion in inflows last year, suffered a combined exodus in February, raising questions for future launches.
Following last year's reversal of a three-year fall in mutual fund assets in Asia ex-Japan, Cerulli Associates expects industry growth to continue at a healthy pace.
They are asking for long-term performance, but changing managers on short-term results. Nevertheless, Cerulli’s Ken Yap sees emerging opportunities for serving Asian institutions.
The region's asset management industry will swell to $4 trillion by 2015 and eventually be the biggest in the world, finds Cerulli. ETFs are forecast to grow rapidly, notably in China.
While the institutional investment business in Asia is growing in importance, the region's Ucits-compliant funds market is attracting ever more attention, according to Cerulli Associates.